Retrospective replay. Not a live drought alert. Testnet funds only.
October–December rainfall, 1991–2023 · seasonal total, mm
OND 2021: 78.7 mm, 33.63 % of the 1991–2020 normal of 234.0 mm.
Source: ERA5 via Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus C3S. models=era5, daily precipitation_sum, Africa/Addis_Ababa days. Baseline percentages are shown for context only.
Show the data as a table
| Season | mm | % of normal | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 157.0 | 67.10 | Baseline |
| 1992 | 176.8 | 75.56 | Baseline |
| 1993 | 92.8 | 39.66 | Baseline |
| 1994 | 193.5 | 82.70 | Baseline |
| 1995 | 225.3 | 96.29 | Baseline |
| 1996 | 129.2 | 55.21 | Baseline |
| 1997 | 442.1 | 188.95 | Baseline |
| 1998 | 78.6 | 33.59 | Baseline |
| 1999 | 166.6 | 71.20 | Baseline |
| 2000 | 258.2 | 110.35 | Baseline |
| 2001 | 183.7 | 78.51 | Baseline |
| 2002 | 246.1 | 105.18 | Baseline |
| 2003 | 133.8 | 57.18 | Baseline |
| 2004 | 268.5 | 114.75 | Baseline |
| 2005 | 164.2 | 70.17 | Baseline |
| 2006 | 325.2 | 138.98 | Baseline |
| 2007 | 93.5 | 39.96 | Baseline |
| 2008 | 323.8 | 138.38 | Baseline |
| 2009 | 195.9 | 83.72 | Baseline |
| 2010 | 108.8 | 46.50 | Baseline |
| 2011 | 525.9 | 224.76 | Baseline |
| 2012 | 191.7 | 81.93 | Baseline |
| 2013 | 244.7 | 104.58 | Baseline |
| 2014 | 296.1 | 126.55 | Baseline |
| 2015 | 334.6 | 143.00 | Baseline |
| 2016 | 149.4 | 63.85 | Baseline |
| 2017 | 375.4 | 160.44 | Baseline |
| 2018 | 130.4 | 55.73 | Baseline |
| 2019 | 467.7 | 199.89 | Baseline |
| 2020 | 339.8 | 145.22 | Baseline |
| 2021 | 78.7 | 33.63 | Replay |
| 2022 | 104.4 | 44.61 | Replay |
| 2023 | 498.9 | 213.22 | Replay |
- ERA5 cell (decision source)
- 0.25° ≈ 28 km, centred 5° N, 38° E
- CHIRPS v3 cell (cross-check only)
- 0.05° ≈ 5.5 km, centred 4.875° N, 38.075° E
- Requested point
- 4.88° N, 38.08° E
Evidence for OND 2021
33.63 %
78.7 mm fell (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-31) against a normal of 234.0 mm.
At or below 60 % → condition metA valid attestation would release the escrow to the beneficiary.
60 % of normal is an illustrative hackathon rule, not an official drought definition.
- Deficit vs normal
- 155.3 mm below
- Days with data
- 92 / 92any missing day → INVALID
- Baseline seasons
- 30 / 30
- Index (basis points)
- 3363floor(787 × 10000 × 30 / 70193)
- z-score (informational)
- -1.34
- CHIRPS v3 cross-check
- 52.5 % · 88.9 mminformational, never used for eligibility
0xde7fdf48a6a608f3702848d95643440ceac87c4f411ccd64fc7776653be94f500xf1f503df82d576ee2fef554aa4bbfad0253a9612304dc1e915643abb9075bf8bSaved ERA5 snapshots (historical observations), retrieved 2026-10-19, SHA-256 verified against the manifest (4 files).
Files and hashes
- 1991-01-01_2000-12-31
sha256 0x30003c7f5b326e35af308341cc6811d5a036cffc6816ee89307e8e6383346353 - 2001-01-01_2010-12-31
sha256 0x8083767db6101cee2a1045190d6a65c751866f1962032ba1c9c380b6da31aadc - 2011-01-01_2020-12-31
sha256 0x6122c90fed0130309389cd885710d5c032e83988f4084d192e4bd2241132b729 - 2021-10-01_2021-12-31
sha256 0x2e8710eb6c6ff0636d473eca934cb25880bd818e5677b2de336f82352de83828
Recompute in your browser
Rebuilds the evidence hash from the committed ERA5 snapshot, then re-fetches Open-Meteo live to compare.
Rainfall estimate from ERA5 reanalysis (a model, not a rain gauge) for one ~28 km grid cell. It does not measure drought impact or financial loss.
CHIRPS: Funk et al., CHIRPS v3.0, Climate Hazards Center, UCSB, cited from CLIMATE_DATA.md §3.2 (accessed 2026-10-19).
Two datasets. Same seasons. Different answers.
ERA5 and CHIRPS v3 disagree for some seasons (e.g. MAM 2021: 55 % vs 101 % of normal). Rilva shows both and uses ERA5 for the rule, because it can be re-fetched and re-hashed byte-for-byte. Disagreement is shown, not hidden.
OND 2021
ERA5 33.63 % · CHIRPS 52.5 %Both meet the 60 % rule
OND 2022
ERA5 44.61 % · CHIRPS 54.8 %Both meet the 60 % rule
OND 2023
ERA5 213.22 % · CHIRPS 140.9 %Both miss the 60 % rule
MAM 2021counter-example, not a campaign
ERA5 54.68 % · CHIRPS 101.4 %Rule met on ERA5, missed on CHIRPS
ERA5 values are recomputed from the committed snapshots. CHIRPS: Funk et al., CHIRPS v3.0, Climate Hazards Center, UCSB, single 0.05° pixel, cited from CLIMATE_DATA.md §3.2 (accessed 2026-10-19). CHIRPS never feeds eligibility, the index, the evidence hash or the contract.
Where and what
- Place
- Yabelo, Borena Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia
- Requested point
- 4.88° N, 38.08° E
- Resolved ERA5 cell
- 5° N, 38° E · 1891 m
- Day boundary
- Africa/Addis_Ababa (UTC+3)
- Variable
- precipitation_sum, mm/day (0.1 mm steps)
- Model
- ERA5 reanalysis, pinned (models=era5)
- Season
- Oct 1 – Dec 31 (Hagaya short rains)
- Baseline
- 1991–2020, 30 seasons
What this cell is, and is not
One ~28 km ERA5 grid cell over Yabelo. It is a model estimate, not a rain gauge, and it does not represent Borena Zone, a farm or a household. A different baseline period would shift every percentage.